I go through periods where I totally ignore the media and the news, sometimes for months at a time. I find I am better informed about the world when I don't get stuff filtered through the journalism industry. I usually do this when not much is going on - though I am totally ignorant of the first gulf war.
General elections are great shared national events and are usually things I follow closely. I generally devour the daily polls with as much enthusiasm as I do my breakfast. And so I have been doing with the current one so far. But I've decided to give this one a miss for the rest of the campaign. It just doesn't seem to be hitting the spot.
There hasn't been much reaction to the general election in my neck of the woods so far. I haven't seen a single canvasser on the streets nor a single poster in a window. Nobody has talked about it. I live in the middle of a very small town where gossip is a way of life and where I know a great many people to talk to. But nobody so far has made any reference to the momentous events on the hustings.
Just for reference, this is the state of the parties when I checked out. The Tories are on between 40 and 45% right now, buoyed up by the rather curious decision of the Brexit Party to stand down in Tory held seats. I think this will have the effect of nobbling Brexit Party candidates everywhere, so they'll probably become an irrelevance. The Tories usually lose a few points during the campaign. But it looks like they are well placed to win a good majority nonetheless. Labour is on a parlous 30% and is not showing any sign of making a lift off. But it should gain a bit from the Brexit Party collapse. It always does well on the doorsteps. And the cruel but unarguable logic of the first past the post system should ensure it is able to squeeze some Lib Dem votes in places where it matters.
So my prognosis is that Labour will get a bit further up into the 30s, and will do better still in seats. But actually depriving Johnson of his premiership looks very unlikely indeed. So we are in for a proper majority Tory government.
I can't say I am especially happy about this. But it is just about where the public mood is right now. The long drift to the right has reversed and the Thatcher-Reagan consensus has broken down. But there are still plenty of older voters who haven't noticed this yet. And the new left wing consensus hasn't really emerged yet. It isn't simply back to the mixed economy, Keynesian economics and benignn corportatism. And it certainly isn't back to the class based unionism. This must be perplexing for Mr Corbyn in particular. He suddenly finds himself very popular and a lot of interest in ideas he thought had been marginalised. But somehow he still isn't quite in tune with the times. But then, none of us are.
I think a period in opposition will give Labour a chance to do some thinking and come up with a coherent set of ideas and policies. They've got plenty of members to do so with.
The party with the problem is the Conservatives. They've managed to just about unifiy over Europe, but only at the expense of ditching their more liberal wing. This is a double problem for them. For a start it will alienate more liberally minded types amongst their normal support. Perhaps still worse is that the government is likely to be composed of hardline rightwingers. These guys don't on the whole have the ability to run much . The Johnson administration might well be the most talent free one that the Tories have deployed since the grammar school boys made it to the top in the days of Edward Heath.
Anyway I'll keep my coverage of the election going. It is possible that it might impinge on my daily life in some way. Otherwise I'll just keep thinking about undistracted by the news cycle.
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