Weirdly I feel very optimistic. I was expecting the Tories to win big. Well they won a lot bigger than I expected. Their losses in the south were basically Putney and failing to retake Canterbury. And they cleaned up northern seats to an extent that nobody I know of foresaw. Johnson looked home and dry as soon as the Brexit Party threw the towel in, but this was a victory beyond any reasonable expectations.
It should have been my worst nightmare. The Labour Party is my default choice when given a voting opportunity and although I often chose other options I like to see Labour doing well. And I really really don't want to leave the EU. So I ought to have been thrown into despair by election result. But now it's happened and sunk in I find myself quite upbeat about it all. I am having to examine why myself, so this post will be a bit of a journey of discovery.
First off, although I liked the Labour manifesto the overcommitment bothered me a lot more than I wanted to admit even to myself. There just wasn't enough explanation as to how it was to be achieved. Unlike watching a broadcast, reading a document - particularly a long document - is bit like establishing a relationship. You get to think you know the person writing it. The person writing the Labour manifesto came over as likeable but not as practical. If I were interviewing them they'd be on the 'possible, but I was really hoping for someone better list'. I am relieved I don't have to take any of the blame for the failure. By contrast, the Tory one is absolutely nothing to do with me.
Secondly, it is a relief that Brexit will finally get done. It is so frustrating that the incompetence of the people behind Brexit that has made it so difficult to implement has been twisted to make it look like opposing a policy damaging to the country is in some way anti-democratic. It has also meant that Brexit supporters even now can project onto Brexit whatever they choose in the absence of any clarity on what form it is actually going to take. I have a feeling that the pro-EU case is going to be much easier to be made at the details level. It will be a relief to finally got onto it.
Thirdly a landslide victory, which is what this feels like even if it doesn't quite meet the normal definition of one, is a clear break. In some ways the malaise in British politics is basically down to the Tories never quite winning properly at any point. This meant that the Labour Party never quite had the freedom to have a serious rethink - there was always the risk of another election that they could win just around the corner. Well they've got five years to do some serious thinking. It's not impossible they've got 10 years. The Tories have to be favourites to win next time too if they don't mess something big up. They generally do mess something big up of course, but you never know.
I think there's quite a lot of stuff to look at. Corbynism wasn't a total failure, though it clearly was never a total solution either. Blairism had its good points. The Liberal Democrats' failure bears analysis - how did they lose so much support so quickly. And is there some kind of accommodation that can be made with them? And also the strategies and tactics of UKIP and the Brexit Parties shouldn't be ignored. With only just over 200 seats Labour is now dangerously close to being an insurgent party itself. Looking at the way those guys do things might be interesting and useful.
And finally, I don't think the Johnson administration is going to be as bad as previous Tory ones. There is a lot to dislike about the Tories, but the thing that makes them a uniquely bad government offering is their unwillingness to spend money. I have a hunch this one might be different on that score.
I am going to stop this blog now. I have other things to do and politics is very distracting. I am going to concentrate on making some money for the next five years. If I make enough I might well cover the next general election in minute detail, and maybe even get involved myself.
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