Opinion Polls - Why We Should All Ignore Them

"Something Will Turn Up"

I get very interested in opinion polls sometimes.   Over the summer I found them particularly interesting.  Neither Labour nor the Conservatives were doing very well.  The Conservatives were losing votes to the Brexit Party and as a consequence weren't doing very well.  Labour were losing votes to the Brexit Party, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, the  Greens and the Scots and Welsh Nationalists.  It all seemed quite exciting and maybe indicated a big turnaround in British politics.


But then things started calming down and I realised that if there was going to be an election in 2019 the classic two party squeeze was going to be in operation. The big two were going to make all the running.  There had seemed to be revolution in the air.  There was the example of the Greens looking likely to take over from the Social Democrats as the top do on the left in Germany.  (A remarkable turnout if sustained.)  And with Brexit raising the profile of politics and the temperature of the debate at one end, and Extinction Rebellion debating the raising of the temperature at the other there did seem to be some possibilities.

Politics is still a bit odd.  Labour now seems to be radical on most things, but with a very sensible and middle of the road policy on Brexit.   The Conservatives have a stomach churningly radical position on Brexit.  And they are combinining it with spending committments that would have scared Mr Micawber.  They are presumably hoping that something will turn up.  I did wonder if they had been hoping that what would turn up would be a Labour government.  But professional politicians don't aim to lose elections so that is probably too cynical. 

I haven't been following the polls - though I did inadvertently see one with the Conservatives 24% ahead.  I didn't look at the details but with just the one data point to go on I am assuming that Labour are heading for the a 1983 type experience.  But I wouldn't be too down hearted if I were in their shoes.  They will have dodged the bullet of having to deal with Brexit and can have a serious think about what they want to do as a party.   They seem to have lots of ideas and energy even if they don't have many voters.  And judging from my reading of the manifestos the Tories are already stealing their policies.  Just as not so long ago you couldn't find a politician who wasn't a neoliberal, not you can't find one who is.  I think Labour has a future - but it might take a while for them to realise it.

The Conservatives however might come to rue the day that they win big, if that is indeed what they do.  They've promised to get Brexit done - whatever that means.   It's a beautiful election slogan because it allows voters to project what they want onto it.  But the fact is that Brexit will very much not be done, even if we manage to leave.  There isn't a form of Brexit that will please all of its supporters, let alone the very large number of people - almost certainly a majority - who don't want  it in the first place.  The people likely to be most unhappy will be those who thought that it would mean less immigration.  It won't.  The ones who thought it would mean bringing manufacturing back to Britain are going to discover it will mean the opposite.

Whereas it is easy to see a route for Labour to come up with a programme that will unite the left and centre, it is much harder to see any form of Brexit that doesn't cause some kind of fracture on the right.  If Brexit is botched it is even worse.   Big opinion poll leads, and a big majority all sound great.  But I think the Tories might come to find that this was the one they should have lost.