For example, I reasoned that the Commonwealth countries were not as valuable as trading partners to the modern UK as the EU is. So it made sense to stick with what we had rather than chasing people who we might well have more shared culture with but who are farther away and fewer in number.
What never crossed my mind was that they might be equally uninterested in us. I can't really deny it- I was rather arrogant about it.
Well the news that Australian government won't start trade talks until the UK is completely out of its contractual obligations under the EU treaty has put me right on that one. So my apologies to all my fellow subjects of Elizabeth II outside the UK. It isn't much consolation, but I have a feeling that people who voted leave will take the news even more badly than I have. Here is the result of a poll of who we should be doing trade deals with.
To be honest trade deals are important but they aren't the key thing. I actually do some business with Australia and it works just fine with the existing arrangements. I have stuff that they want - they pay me for it. And being in the EU hasn't stopped the flow of Fosters lager the other way. So maybe this isn't something that matters that much. But hopefully some of the 47% of leave voters whose priority was a trade deal with Australia will at least realise that they probably don't have a great idea of how the world works.
The "gravity model" of trade (which works pretty well), says that the importance of a trading partner is proportional to their GDP divided by the square of the distance between you and them. The "Remain" voters in the YouGov poll get it exactly right. The Labour voters are close, and the Lib Dem guy gets half credit.
ReplyDeleteThe folks on the top row are clearly basing their preferences on something other than economics.
That is definitely so.
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