What Happens If Brexit Goes Badly Wrong?

I don't think that there will be a big single event that derails Brexit and discredits it.  The one thing that might fit the bill would be a massive run on the pound.  We've had a bit of one over the last couple of months, but because it was a sudden drop that stabilised quickly it didn't really have the psychological effect of a sustained fall in value that nobody knows the end of.  The UK economy is too big for all but the biggest of shocks to knock it off course in the short run.  You should never say never about things like this, but I think the risk is pretty low.  The most likely scenario is a steady accumulation of small bad news stories which eventually build into a narrative that Brexit means job losses.


But if there is a crisis who would benefit?  We have the slightly bizarre situation where the people who are implementing it aren't particularly strongly associated with it.   Theresa May was probably playing politics by not campaigning for the EU very strongly, but her calculation must have been to keep sweet with the membership rather than actually to take us out.  But as it happens if things do go wrong with Brexit in a noteworthy way she isn't really an obvious person to blame.  After all, she was just trying to make it work against her better judgement.

I have been spending a lot of time reading what leavers are saying on social media and they are definitely not singling her out for any particular criticism yet.  The people who are getting booted are Labour. There seems to be outrage at Labour for opposing the will of the voters and trying to stop the Brexit process.  This is not remotely what Labour are actually saying of course - with the exception of David Lammy.  And in fact Jeremy Corbyn has if anything been even quicker to accept the result than Theresa May has been.   But it isn't entirely unfair either since the Labour Party has not swung wholeheartedly behind Brexit and so can be reasonably suspected of biding their time for a good moment to come out in the open with their true opinion.  This makes them appear simultaneously undemocratic and untrustworthy.

So I have a feeling that a Brexit breakdown would not harm the Conservatives much and would not help Labour very much either.

But as I say, I don't think there is a crunch coming.  The fact is that if anything Brexit is becoming more popular rather than less, probably as a result of people's fears of the consequences not materialising.   This is good news for the Conservatives who being in power can get the kind of Brexit that they want.  It is dreadful news for Labour.  If they campaign to return to the EU they are quite likely to lose votes.  If they don't campaign they'll lost other votes.  If they come out in favour of Brexit their sincerity will be questionable.  All in all, it has turned into just about the worst situation the party has been in since it was founded.  Jeremy Corbyn himself has a long history of Euroskepticism.  He converted to being pro-EU very late - he has been very consistent in most of his beliefs and is not afraid to be unpopular as a result.  It is rather ironic that the one he has dropped has turned out to be so popular.

But overall it looks like even a major crisis is not going to derail Brexit given the political situation. Anyone planning to campaign to keep the UK in has their work cut out.