Monday 26 September 2016

Brexit May Be An Issue For Years To Come

Youngsters Love EU More Than Corbyn


I don't want to spend too much time on this blog on politics, or at least not party politics.  Brexit is bigger than that and I need to get keep my own partisan views at a distance for what I am trying to do. But it is the conference season so here's another set of political reflections.


The big news at the moment is that Jeremy Corbyn has won the rematch of the Labour leadership, and has done so with a majority in nearly all categories or groupings in the party. There are only a few places his popularity isn't overwhelming.  MPs are the ones everyone knows about.  He also just falls below 50% if you only look at pre-2015 members. Both of those groups are ones whose antipathy is reasonably obvious to explain. But he also fell behind his challenger in the 18-24 age group.

I didn't take too much notice of this on first hearing. He must seem very old to somebody of that age I thought.  I thought people in their forties were unbelievably old when I was in my thirties. So that seemed like a reasonable explanation.

But mulling it over, I wonder if it is in fact Europe that has turned the youth against Corbyn.  After all they are the most pro-EU demographic.  Is it possible that this is the issue that they regard as most important and that they are approve of Owen Smith's stridently pro-EU position.  It was, after all, the only significant policy difference between the two men.

If so, that might be something that proves to be very significant indeed in the future.  I have hardly changed my political views and priorities since that age so it is quite likely that the current europhilia that they are showing is going to be with them for some time.  This means that this issue may well stay on the agenda as this cohort gets into more positions of influence as time goes on.

They are likely to be disappointed in the short run though.  The Labour Party conference has not voted to debate Brexit this year.  The bulk of the delegates obviously have other priorities at the moment.

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