Brexit As It Happens

I suppose I should start by making my own opinion clear.  I think Brexit is a really stupid idea.  My reasoning is simple.  Why downgrade my citizenship?  An EU passport is going to be a lot more useful to me than a simple UK one.


I've got a set of other reasons that are less overwhelmingly compelling to me but which stand up well enough.  But the purpose of this blog isn't to push my position - which I think is one that is not very different to that of millions of other remainers.   It's more to track what will be a unique historical event.  As I write the process has only just got started and the details of what is going on are only just starting to emerge.  The statement that is being banded about is that 'Brexit Means Brexit'.  It was a good bit of politics on the part of Theresa May to come up with that.  It sounded decisive and filled a gap when the government literally had no idea what to do next.  I think it has come to the end of its shelf life now though.  We are going to start learning what Brexit actually does mean over the coming months.  I think this is when it is going to start becoming interesting.

Only a fool would make predictions at this stage. So here I go.

I think that the package we end up with will be very much Brexit-lite.  The negotiations are going to be handled largely by people who never wanted it in the first place.  Every bit of watering down that they can get away with will be got away with.  Hearing that a lot of big London law firms are offering their services to help with drafting the rules for free just confirms what I would have assumed.  Vested interests are going to be very, well, interested in the outcomes and will make sure that they get as much that suits them.  It would be a field day for diligent, well informed and courageous investigative journalists.  What a shame the species seems to be extinct.

My other prediction is that public support for Brexit will ebb away steadily.  There won't be a reduction in immigration.  This seems to be the issue that swung it for a lot of people.  But there is a big difference between what the outers were offering and what they can deliver.  I don't think you can blame Europe for much longer.  And every economic setback from now on will be blamed on Brexit, fairly or unfairly.

There is also the matter of demographics.  Although I did see some figures that suggested that the very old were pro-Europe, basically the bulk of the out camp were towards the older end of the age range.  Not all of them will be around much longer.

So we are in for protracted negotiations and eroding public support.  My next prediction is that the whole thing will start to sink down the news coverage.  Gove stabbing Johnson in the back was a great news story.  How we disentangle all the knots we have tied with our soon to be former partners are much less so.

But the details are actually the important bit.  So I will keep an eye on what is going on and see if I can tease out the stuff that really matters.