Monday 7 November 2016

Price Rises On The Way - Surely This Will Affect Opinion?

I have included a link below to avoid to a price rise story, but it is my own prices that I am currently grappling with.  I have to quote for some business in a non-EU country and even though it is Sunday I need to get on with it.   Costing special jobs is always a problem but now I have to bear in mind that prices I have given for similar jobs in the past now look 15% or so cheaper to my customer than they did before the vote.  I also need to bear in mind that my direct costs will be going up, and that they profit I need to make on something I will probably not get paid for until 3 or 4 months now will need to be higher if I am to generate the cash I need to stay in business.


I am long enough in the tooth to remember previous occasions when the pound has been weak.  It isn't the end of the world.  But it does make life more difficult.

Support for the leave side has proved pretty resilient so far.  It has eroded a little if the opinion polls are anything to go by.  But so far unless you are doing business with partners abroad or have been on holiday you won't have noticed very much happening.   This won't be the case for much longer as the price rises that will inevitably be the result of the fall in the value of the pound work their way through to higher prices on the shelves.  I imagine that some poeple who weren't particularly bothered about the issue will start to form an opinion on it. And some more of the weaker leave supporters will peal off as well.

But the big question is how quickly these moves in opinion will be and how quickly they will move.  The media will presumably continue to support Brexit and will no doubt contrive to somehow blame the problems on remainers.  The feeling I get is that the line that is being prepared is that the problems are down to not implementing Brexit as quickly or as definitively as it should have been.  It is worth remembering that one of the big arguments for staying out in the seventies was that food prices would be lower if we could buy on the world market.  This one - which does have some truth behind it - has been trotted out reasonably often.  It even appeared as a front page Express story after the referendum on a slow news day.

Opinion on this issue can change very quickly.  After all there was a poll that had support for Remain at over 60% as recently as the summer of 2015.  It changed pretty quickly during the campaign itself.  Remain still remained capable of pulling in some double digit poll leads in May and June, so it seems a lot of people must have changed their minds on the issue during the campaign.  There must be potential for them to change their minds back.

I remain of the opinion that Article 50 should have been invoked the day after the vote.  That was what I was expecting to happen, and I think a lot of pointless debate could have been avoided if this had been done.  I didn't realise that there was no plan in place for this eventuality, but that is another issue.  As things stand we still don't know even what it is we are going to be asking for.  I see the strength of the argument that parliament should vote on matter, but this is a matter of vital national interest.  I still can't see anything to be gained from delaying even another day. It just gives us more time to put off confronting the reality of what life outside the EU will be like.

We have to get out, and the sooner we are outside the better.  There is nothing stopping us negotiating with the EU once we are out.  Indeed there is nothing stopping us going back in.  I think that will be the clear majority opinion before long.  The sooner we get the matter settled the sooner we can start talking about our real problems.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/06/birds-eye-walkers-supermarkets-price-rise-brexit-vote-pound

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