Fatties Voted Brexit

Is Voting Brexit Like Eating Cake?

I have wondered from time to time what it is that makes some people left wing and some right wing.  I have a pretty well developed radar and can usually guess someone I met's politics before the subject comes up.  But I have taken a long time to put my finger on what it is that gives the game away.  I have never thought of being pro or anti the EU as being something that was particularly left wing or right wing, and there are plenty of very left wing leavers and and very right wing remainers.  But nonetheless there does seem to be some kind of affinity between leavers and a particular kind of conservatism.  And I think that Brexiters in general have the same general qualities that a lot of right wingers have.


I noticed long ago that there is no correlation between political allegiance and honesty, intelligence or selfishness.  Academics and scientists tend to be left wing which for a while gave me the idea that the left overall was the brainy side.  But experience has taught me that being in receipt of a lot of education does not actually make you any cleverer. It just gives you a bigger vocabulary to be stupid with.

And yet there is a difference, and one that I think shows itself in quite a few ways outside of the voting booth.  I have only very recently come to this conclusion, but I think the difference is to do with the time horizon on which they generally think.  Right wingers seem to come to conclusions and act on those judgements rather quicker than do left wingers.  And they don't tend to think things through to the same extent.  Left wingers on the other hand are often much more concerned about the possible impacts of things and take more care about what is going to happen in the future.

One consequence of that is that right wingers are often less concerned about their health.  One place I worked had designated a particular area for smokers to use when they were having their fag breaks, which happened to be right next to the bicycle shed.  This meant that the cyclists and the smokers tended to chat to one another.  The cyclists were all on the left, the smokers all on the right.

You might not accept my analysis, but as I say it has enabled me to accurately predict people's views quite often so I think there is something in it.

But back to Brexit.  As I say, this isn't a left right issue, but it is one where it takes a bit of work to get to grips with the issues.  And it is one that requires a long term perspective.  We have after all been in for 40 years and could well be out for 40.   Whatever your starting point, the more you think about it the less enthusiastic you are likely to be for leaving purely because of all the practical details.

So on that basis I would say that the longer your time horizon the less likely you are to go for Brexit.  I think this is one of the reasons for the direction of travel in the Labour Party, which started off pretty hostile to the EU.  It even fought one election on the promise to leave.  But it has steadily come around to support it.  A thoughtful person might well conclude that while you wouldn't necessarily choose to join it in the first place - once you are in the more integrated you get into the system the more trouble it is to get out.  And there is always a price tag to making any big change.  An impulsive person is more likely to simply decide it is a bad thing and to want to just get out and get on with things.

Which brings me to the most amusing bit of analysis of the Brexit vote I have seen so far.  It turns out that there is a link between obesity and Brexit.  The parts of the country that are most obese are the most likely to vote for Brexit.  Well that is easily explained if I am right about the time frames people are considering.  If you have a short time horizon you aren't going  to be too worried about that pie or that cake. You are just going to eat them.

There is no data relating BMI to voting patterns in Britain, but there is an indication that in the US Republican voters tend to be chunkier.   I have never noticed that Labour supporters are particularly slim or that conservatives I am friendly with are any more overweight than anybody else.  But as a nation we aren't as far down the junk food path as the Americans yet.  I don't doubt we'll catch up with them soon enough and that might make it all a bit more obvious.

In the meantime, next time there is a pro or anti Brexit demo I'll be looking out for the waistlines.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/05/heavy-politics/?_r=0