Nobody Will Enjoy No Deal

Just about any deal is better than no deal

Have you ever discovered that you were totally and catastrophically wrong about something?  And that other people were too?  I remember when I started my degree the first exercise we were set was to write a one page essay on how the Amazon rain forest was important as a source of oxygen.  It was a big news story at the time.


We all went away and diligently wrote our account of the issue.  Every one of us failed to pick up they key point.  The rain forest does indeed release oxygen.  But it only does so after absorbing it first.   So on balance it had no effect.  It was so obvious when it was pointed out.  I can still remember the sinking feeling in my stomach as it was pointed out by the lecturer.  He revealed the answer before he told us that we had all got it wrong - so for about a minute I was under the impression that I was the only person in the room who had missed the obvious.

It wasn't a great science lesson, but it was a great life lesson.  It is very possible for a totally stupid idea to become very widespread and to be held by a great many people. 

There is an obvious example doing the rounds right now.  There are large numbers of people currently advocating the so called no deal Brexit.  I can see the appeal.  If you want to leave the EU it must be tempting to think that just getting out regardless is the best way to end the matter.  We can pick up the pieces later.  It makes emotional sense.

The trouble is it doesn't make any other kind of sense.  If it were to happen you just have to think forward to what will happen the day after we have left.  Europe isn't going away and we still need to trade with it.  We still need to have some terms of trade with them.  It instantly becomes the top item on the political agenda.  All that has changed is that our bargaining position is weaker.  It is a lot weaker in fact. 

As a solution to the UK's Brexit crisis leaving with No Deal stands out as being the option that is most stupid.  People advocating it are going to realise this at some point.  They won't enjoy the experience.  I am just hoping the rest of us won't have to endure the actual thing before they do.