I have always had the impression that Nigel Farage went into politics because he is good at it rather than because he particularly cared about the results. Much like a skilled violinist might play Beethoven not for the love of the music but as an exercise of their craft. And to be fair, he is very good at it. Maybe even way back in his youth, he selected campaigning against the EU as his life's work precisely because it was something that was never likely to bear any fruit and likewise would never go away.
I might be doing him a disservice there - his passion may not be totally synthetic. But nonetheless it is surely the case that he must have been well aware that his efforts were likely to never come to anything.
But as chance would have it, he has had a profound effect on British politics. And now he finds himself with a decision to make that would test the skill of the most ardent statesman. His Brexit Party is currently polling somewhere between 10-20%, but doesn't appear to have any localities where it is concentrated enough to actually win many or indeed any seats. But in a tight election their intervention could be crucial. Not all Brexit Party supporters are Tories on holiday - but they obviously draw more votes away from the Tories than anyone else.
So if they stand down the Tories chances of winning a majority go up. If they fight everywhere, they could very easily block the Tories route to power altogether.
Deep down I suspect that Mr Farage would rather do the latter. This would probably scupper Brexit altogether or at least lead to a very moderate form of it. His reason for being will return and he can go back to what he is most comfortable doing.
But what about the really tough option. If he came to a working arrangement with the Conservatives he could make it more likely that they won overall. This could also mean the Brexit Party would stand a good chance of actually being represented in parliament. This option is fraught with difficulties of course. The deal has to be done in such a way that the Brexit Party doesn't tarnish the Tory image and lose it more votes than it gains. And the Brexit Party itself risks being tarnished by association with the Tories. There are plenty of Brexit Party supporters whose normal diet is Labour. And as we saw in Peterborough, whatever problems Labour has in Westminster its ground operation is still in good shape. Labour seats that voted leave may not be anywhere near as vulnerable as they look on paper. And being able to portray the Brexiters as the Conservative Party in a new frock would help to defend them.
Farage's risk is that if he misjudges it will be very easy to portray him as the man that wrecked Brexit. Imagine a deal is struck and the result is that the combined Tory/Brexit Party vote is big enough to have won, but the split between the two lets the remain parties form a coalition that proceeds to end the whole thing.
I have a feeling that there are people in the Brexit Party who would be quite happy with this. The hard left types like Claire Fox are presumably along for the ride in the hope of creating as much chaos and undermining as many British institutions as they can. They are probably already delighted at the state the Conservative Party is in, and are hoping to extend that parliamentary democracy overall. Remaining in the EU might well provide them with a grievance they can work with to achieve their other aims. I wonder if in the end Farage will end up facilitating the creation of a hard left party that actually has some traction. I have a feeling that isn't what he had in mind when he set out.
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