Brexit Becomes A Culture War

I started 2017 without any idea of how Brexit could be stopped, and assuming it was basically unstoppable.  The majority had voted for it in the referendum and the ruling party and the bulk of the media backed it.  There was little sign of any movement of opinion and so it looked pretty much like a lost cause.  The only slim hope was if opinion started moving markedly away from it.


Well a lot of unexpected things have happened, most notably the pro-Brexit party losing its majority.   It now looks a lot like there are in fact quite a few routes that have opened up that could derail Brexit.  In fact, I surmise that a marked change in the public mood would make it totally impossible to go through with it.

But there is the problem.  There doesn’t seem to have been any serious move in the opinion polls.  There was one showing a big lead for remain.  But that has just been balanced by one showing an equally big lead for leave.   And the bulk of the polls show that the numbers are pretty close to the referendum result overall. 

It looks like public opinion is stagnant.

But I have a feeling that this apparent lack of movement is hiding very big and significant changes in opinion.  It’s just that there is roughly equal traffic both ways.  Based on people I have spoken to and listended to, including when they are talking about different subjects altogether, I can draw a few conclusions. 

For a start, supporting Brexit seems to now be the default among conservative older people.   They might well have followed the lead of David Cameron in the referendum itself and voted remain because that was the party line.  Now that Theresa May is promoting Brexit meaning Brexit, they have responded by falling in behind the programme.  This is a bit deeper than simply party loyalty.  With the EU now being portrayed as being other, there is a natural inclination to fall in behind your side.  You can argue about whether this is logical, but it makes emotional sense.  You don’t have to be xenophobic or blind to its shortcomings to cheer on the British team and football or cricket.

Balancing that is the attitude of younger people who see Brexit as an attack on their rights and the kind of world they want to live in.  They are used to hopping on an Easyjet to celebrate a stag do in Prague, probably have a few immigrant friends and might well regard spending some time in Europe as part of their career as something that is getting on towards being a human right.  They might well have not had an opinion on the EU at all at the time of the referendum.  The EU has hardly been a controversial subject for most of their lives and they probably never gave it a second thought. 

So I have a feeling  that a lot of 2016 don’t knows are now very much remainers.

You can argue all day about the economics of Brexit.  (This is a metaphor, but is also literally true if you find the right internet forums.) I don’t think anyone really believes we’ll be better off if we leave, but equally nobody really knows what the effect of leaving will be.  I certainly don’t anyway.   But it has moved on from that now.  There are a whole set of attitudes and policies that have no logical connection to Brexit but which are now associated with it.   I saw a poll that suggests that leavers are very keen on capital punishment for example.  It’s hard to imagine that many people will be opposing fox hunting and supporting the free movement of people.  And most trivial and most importantly at the same time - the colour of the British passport is now a matter that som people feel very strongly about.

This shift of the Brexit debate from politics and economics to culture is one that is summed up beautifully in a tweet by Nadine Dorries.  It doesn't mention Brexit, but does bemoan the influence of the left.  They are destroying comedy, dumbing down pantomime, pulling down statues, taking the Christ out of Christmas and destroying free speech.  That not one of these things is true - indeed in the case of dumbing down pantomime it is hard to see how it would even be possible - isn't really the point.  She has a worldview that requires an external enemy.  The actual real life actions of the European Commission or the Labour Party have no bearing on this.

In the short run, that the main arena for the Brexit debate is now world views rather than policy differences is bad news for the pro-Europeans.  If you think that Europe is trying to ban Christmas, the details of the free trade agreement being proposed is not really going to swing your vote.

In the longer run it is hard to see how Brexit is going to recruit new adherents to replace those that are disproportionately represented amongst the 500,000 or so people who leave the electoral register for a better place every year.  It is worth comparing it to support for the death penalty.  For most of my adult life I have opposed the death penalty but been very aware that mine was a minority view.  And if I recall correctly, back in the eighties it was something like 75% were in favour and less than 20% were opposed.  This is the sort of thing that it is very rare to change your mind on, so I was resigned to being permanently in the minority.  And yet the passage of time has worked its magic and back in 2015 the numbers crossed over.  Support for the death penalty is now a minority opinion.  We can be pretty confident it won't take that long for Brexit to become a minority issue. 

It didn't have to be this way.  People like Daniel Hannan have plenty of quite reasonable pro-Brexit arguments that could form the basis for a continued debate.  But as it is, if it is a culture war then Brexit is doomed.