Monday 4 December 2017

The Day The Brexit Died



Well today has been the most interesting since the vote itself.  I picked up a story at lunchtime that the Irish border problem had been solved.  There would be ‘regulatory convergence’ or some other waffly phrase that would ensure that there was no need for a hard border between the UK and Ireland.  So in effect Ulster was going to stay in the single market.


Well that was big news.  My first thoughts, rather self centred I am afraid, was does that mean I might be able to keep my business in the single market?  Could I just have a PO box in Belfast and keep trading as if nothing had happened?

Well I wasn’t the only person thinking about the possibilities.  Nicola Sturgeon instantly and rather predictably demanded the same for Scotland.  I was a bit surprised that the head of the Welsh Assembly followed suit quickly.  I thought the Welsh were pro-Brexit.   But it all added to the gaiety of the event.  Then Saddiq Khan chipped in asking for London to have special treatment too. 

It was all sounding a bit 1989 with Brexit falling in region after region much like the collapse of the Communist bloc countries after the end of the Cold War. 

Needless to say this euphoric feeling that Brexit was dissolving before our very eyes couldn’t last.  Arlene Foster made a statement that showed that the DUP were very much not on board with the thaw.  But once that had sunk in it became clear that it was even weirder than it seemed at first sight.  The story had got out apparently before the DUP had been told about it.  I am not as unsympathetic to the Ulstermen as some people, but even if you think of them as a bunch of bigots it is hard not to sympathise with them in this case.  They are supposed to be the partners of the current government.  But something of key importance and interest to them had been apparently the subject of pretty significant negotiations without them even knowing what was happening.

Even later in the day it emerged that the cabinet hadn’t been kept informed either.  This really makes you wonder what was going on in Theresa May’s head.  Did she really think she could do all this on her own initiative?    It makes you wonder whether she has learned anything in her time on the political front line.

But aside from the truly dreadful tactics, what an amazing thing to have conceded.  It seems that as far as the Prime Minister is concerned, it is possible for some parts of the country to stay in the single market.  This is one heck of a concession and one that really blows the whole Brexit project wide open.  The days of Brexit means Brexit are now over.   Brexit now means arguing for your own particular special interest. 

That would be a pretty big days work on its own.  But there was more.  The idea that there will be continued regulatory compatibility between the UK and the EU going forward is pretty much the softest form of the soft brexit.  Far from taking back control it means ceding control.  We are going to have to go along with all the Brussels rules.  The next time the matter is debated - which will no doubt be soon - it will be the pro-EU side that can use the ‘take back control’ slogan.  If MEPs are deciding our laws we really need to get our MEPs back.

Today was the day that Brexit died.

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