The Brexit Bill - as in the one we are going to pay

The Brexit Bill has just started its progress through parliament with both the big parties backing it.  This means there will be plenty of human interest stories to come of MPs having to vote against the country's interests and their own opinions - or to vote against their party's instructions and quite often the views expressed by the people who elected them.


But the Economist being interested in money are looking forward to another bill.  This is the one we'll have to pay to settle our outstanding liabilities.  I hadn't really thought about this much until I read the article.  I was sort of aware that there would have to be some kind of settlement along with a number of other admin costs.   And I had thought about the future costs of running the UK outiside the EU.  But it had never really struck me that these were big issues that might be important in their own right.

And in a sense I was right, because although the numbers being bandied about are large and much larger than I would have guessed, they aren't impossible figures to afford.   Compared to the size of the UK economy they are quite manageable.  But the psychological impact could be a lot more significant than the economic one.  If you consider that most people are probably like me and have given the matter relatively little thought, it will come as quite a shock to see reports about the negotiations.   Given that most leavers presumably don't greatly value the things that the EU has done for us they will be doubly frustrated to find that we are still in the position of having to make a major contribution to their budget several years after the vote.

But the blood pressure level of leavers is not something I feel responsible for.

What does bother me is that this could become a huge issue that might stand in the way of us getting back in quickly.  We are going to have to pay something, and it we won't get much of it back if we ever rejoin.  So the old sunk cost fallacy which we are all prone to will kick in.  If we've paid say £35 billion to get out that is going to be a big reason to stay out.  

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/frombrusselswithlovethemultibillioneuroexitchargethatcouldsinkbrexittalks