How The UK Has Misplayed Its Best Card

Well the nine months that we have waited before starting the Brexit process proper is now nearly up so it looks like the starting gun will be fired shortly.  I am still not entirely sure what the purpose of the delay was.  The cynical part of me wonders if the government, and Mrs May in particular, were simply hoping something would turn up to allow them to get out of the whole thing somehow.


The stated reason was that time was needed for planning and organising.  If so, not much in the way of details have emerged from the process.  But I think realistically the real reason was a very simple and human one.  It is a big job and the people in charge simply needed time to get their brains around what was actually going on.  They can't have been mentally prepared for it after all.  I don't think anyone really believed it was all going to happen so quickly.  A lot of us never gave the possibility a moment's thought.

But the delay has not really produced any tangible benefit to justify the time that has been lost.  Since the referendum vote an anti-free trade president has been elected and is now in office.  That certainly wasn't part of the script.  The EU itself has failed to fall apart, which was one of the possible consequences that some leavers were hoping for.  And the fall in the pound has weakened the UK's bargaining position considerably.  We are now worth about 15% less as a market than we were last June.

So although the negotiators are probably in better mental shape than they would have been had they been thrown in at the deep end, nothing else is really working  in their favour. And the EU too has had time to come to terms with the situation and to come up with some initiatives on its side.  The possibility of UK citizens being able to have some kind of EU associate membership in particular is a good example of how the EU are beginning to build the conditions for a UK readmission.

Basically the leavers missed their best chance of getting out for good by not moving quickly on  day one.  The other strategy that would have given the UK some leverage was to simply announce that the UK would be leaving, but only when we are ready.  This would have driven a lot of people mad, not least the hardline leavers who really want to get out.   But it would have enabled the economy to be restructured in our own time.  It would have enraged remainers like myself because it would be the best way of ensuring that UK's departure is a long one.  It would have annoyed the EU who would have been at a considerable disadvantage in any preparations they might be making.  But the feelings of one's opponents isn't the top priority of those who are determined to make a project succeed.

Now negotiations are getting going in earnest there will no doubt be compromises, gaffs, surprises and miscalculations on both sides.  But I have a feeling the UK has already failed to get the best out of the only card it had to play, its choice of the date to start the process.