Is It Going To Happen?

The strongest argument for keeping going with Brexit is that respecting the democratic will of the people is more important than any other consideration.  And that is certainly true.  So long as there is no real evidence that the 52% who voted to leave have changed their minds then all the arguments in the world that we shouldn't leave count for nothing.  At the moment, no such evidence has appeared.


I have been quite surprised by this.  I have changed my mind on the subject quite a bit over the years. I started out against the EU when it was still a fairly new thing.  Came round to indifference and hardly thought about it.  With the rise of UKIP the issue was back on the agenda and I decided that on balance it was probably a net benefit.  During the campaign I was fairly pro-EU and realised that there were some things about it I would really miss if we left.  Even then I never thought that the vote would be to leave and never really gave the consequences of leaving my attention.  Since the bomb dropped  I have finally started considering it seriously and have come to the conclusion that leaving is a really bad idea.

So I have held just about every opinion on the EU it is possible to have at one point or other in my life.  It seems to me to be the ultimate pragmatic decision. What are the costs and benefits?  Pick the bigger one.

So given the journey I have been on I have been a bit surprised to find out how many people there seem to be with entrenched attitudes.  Or at least that is how it appears.  But is this in fact the case?  Maybe the cracks are beginning to appear.  The most recent is Theresa May's new right hand man David Lidington speculating about the UK's future relationship with the EU.   It was headlined by the Telegraph as suggesting that the UK might rejoin.

Well that is sort of an obvious observation.  Rejoining has always been likely if not inevitable.  But bringing it up at this point - with enough caveats to enable it to be denied - is not the sort of thing a professional politician at the heart of the government does on a whim.  It is much more likely to be a conscious effort to get this feature of the Brexit project talked about.  Brexit is popular with the older generation, but they are not only going to be gradually leaving the voting pool - they'll also be becoming steadily less active and influential.   The young remain very much pro-Europe.  And as Brexit becomes more real, there will be more and more people who have an actual gripe about it around.

The reality is that Brexit is going to a temporary arrangement.   If nothing else shifts the opinions of leavers, surely that realisation must do it!  And if that thought becomes widespread then it is hard to see how what is already a very difficult project can be completed.