Stray Brexit Thoughts - Brexit Camp Cracking

A Brexit campaigner on Twitter is very unhappy about the way Brexit is going.

https://twitter.com/PeteNorth303/status/917610248751452160

I don't agree with all his points, but the gist is that the negotiations are going not just badly but very badly indeed.  That is beyond dispute.  But looking at the bigger picture it is not surprising that some on the Brexit side are beginning to get somewhat vexed.  They have won their vote, and the goal they sought is being pursued. And yet things really aren't developing how they want them to.


The reason is I think fairly simple when you step away.  There is no reason why Britain shouldn't survive and indeed why it shouldn't thrive outside the EU.   The EU brings some advantages, but ultimately our fate is in our own hands inside or out.   We can work out ways of making a living in most setups.  Much as I like being in the EU for any number of reasons, it wouldn't be the end of the world if we weren't in it.

But what we can't do is unpick 40 years of history in 2 years.  I don't think we can do so in 2 years plus a 2 year transition period.   We are going to need at least a decade if not more.  So if I decided to switch to supporting leave, that is the timescale I'd suggest.   There was no reason why Article 50 had to be invoked until we were ready to go.

This is something that Peter Hitchens, very much an opponent of the EU, said all along.  But he is the only Brexiter I can think of who has been realistic.  And the reason is clear enough.   If you allow a reasonable timescale for leaving the EU then you have to stretch it over several general elections.  And the only way to be sure that successive governments will stick to the plan is by getting a really big majority of the public strongly in favour of leaving.  I don't think the Brexit crowd have any confidence that they can do that.

The reality is that they have fallen into the trap that David Cameron so artfully set for them.  The referendum was set up to be as easy as possible for the leavers so that they couldn't subsequently claim they lost on a technicality.  Well they won - but not by a big enough margin to really take the prize.  So now we end up with what looks set to be a disastrously badly executed Brexit process which will taint the whole idea and make it almost a certainty that a future government will take us back in.  No wonder the Brexiters are not enjoying Brexit much.