Why We Should Drop Article 50 for Now And Play The Long Game

I don’t think that the exact future of the Brexit process has ever been less clear than it is now.  Back in the days after the vote it seemed pretty clear.  Leave had won.  The Conservatives accepted the result pretty wholeheartedly and they had a majority in parliament.  They had 4 years to do it in, and looked pretty well set to win the election afterwards.  Whatever else was happening, we were definitely leaving.  And speaking personally, my inner democrat was telling me that the result was clear enough and things had to run their course. 


It looks a lot less clear now.  For a start the snap election has deprived the Conservatives of their majority - making the implementation that bit harder.  But the way they lost was significant.  Labour are now not just competitive, they are breathing down the Tories’ neck.   A 1% swing to Labour is all it needs to get them to the largest party in the House.   So the attitude of the opposition is now highly relevant. 

But even more than that, the way Labour won seats in places they could never have dreamt of before like Kensington and Canterbury  was highly significant.  It turns out that there are a lot of people who are prepared to vote out the Tories over Brexit. 

Against this background, the talks have been nothing short of embarrassing.  The EU have been inflexible - which isn’t good.  But the UK has been ridiculously flexible to the point of nobody really being able to even work out what we are asking for. 

This is bad because the clock is ticking and if no deal is done we’ll be leaving without any agreements.  The practical consequences of this are not quite life threatening, but not too far short of it.  A lot of businesses will go out of business and and the disruption will cost a lot of money.

And yet opinion has not yet turned against Brexit.  This gives the Conservatives a huge problem.  An anonymous minister is being quoted as saying that stopping Brexit will wreck the party, but carrying on with it will wreck the country. 

So let me offer a suggestion.  My modest proposal is that we simply revoke Article 50 until we have a plan.  It might well take 12 or even 15 years to leave.  We’ll invoke Article 50 when we are ready.   That would disappoint the hardline Brexiters.  But most leavers will probably accept that it is a difficult and it might take some time to get it done properly.  The EU would not appreciate losing their negotiating advantage, but we don’t have to worry about that.  How much madder can they get with us? 

Of course it will delight the remainers like myself, as it gives us plenty of time to win the argument. 

That’s what I’d do anyway.