The Brexit Negotiations Might Change My Mind

Greece is not a good precedent for the Brexit Talks

Interesting to think that if there had been someone with a plan in place we could be well into the negotiation phase already.  There was no reason that Article 50 couldn’t have been invoked the day after the referendum.  In which case Britain could have arrived in Brussels with an agenda worked out and caught the Europeans by surprise.  That would have been the best way of getting the optimum from Brexit.   Like the German’s Von Schliefen plan in the first world war, they could have overcome the disadvantage of scale by planning and surprise.


Of course the Germans failed to capture Paris quickly and their plan failed, and so might the British rapid Brexit plan.  But it at least had a chance.  Once the war settled down into one of attrition it was obvious that the better resourced side would ultimately win.  And so it is with the Brexit negotiations.  The fact is that the EU has all the cards and ultimately it will be able to impose the deal that it chooses to.   The best the British can hope for is a few token victories on minor issues.

But it doesn’t follow automatically from that that the new relationship we have with our former partners has to be a bad one.  Just because the EU has the power to do us considerable damage doesn’t mean that it will think that it is in its best interest so to do.   I’d have thought that the opposite is in fact the case.  Trade between Britain and the EU is mutually beneficial - that is why it is trade - and there is not much to be gained from putting barriers in its way.  Politically speaking the EU does need to have some concern for its image.   Playing hard isn’t a good look to the rest of the world.  And crucially it won’t play well in Britain itself.  If the Europeans want the British back in the club - and they must do - they don’t want to alienate a generation by behaving badly.

So even though the British have contrived to arrive in Brussels in a parlous state,  without any clear idea of what they actually want from the negotiations, there is a good chance the process won’t be too detrimental to the UK’s interests.


At least that is what would happen in an ideal world.   The trouble is that Europeans are no different to any other humans and they don’t necessarily work on the basis of enlightened self interest.  The most directly comparable historical parallel is the Greek debt crisis.   Again this was a situation where a soft and accomodating approach was clearly in the EU’s interest.  The Greek debts could not be cleared by wrecking the Greek economy.   There was no point in punishing the ordinary Greeks for the shortcomings of their politicians  and in any case there were bankers who were just as culpable.   And yet in the event getting popular headlines in the German newspapers seems to have been a bigger factor.  

I have to say that when the referendum campaign started it was the Greek story that was uppermost in my mind and led to me starting out with the intention of voting out.  In fact, had the opinion polls indicated that remain was on course to win I might even have done so.  I only changed my mind when I started to think the whole thing through.  I doubt I will switch back again, but if the negotiations go the way the ones with Greece did maybe I will.  On the other hand, a positive approach by the EU might win it friends from the out camp.  Fingers crossed.