Everyone has an opinion on Brexit and it is inevitable that some of the people who hold those opinions must be wrong. For example it is my opinion that leaving the European Union will leave Britain weaker and poorer. But to be frank, I didn’t decide which way to vote on that basis. My feeling was that I was a European and that I want to live in peaceful co-operation with other Europeans. It might well be the case that we would be better off financially if Britain joined up as a state of the US. It would definitely give us more influence in the world. And yet I would definitely vote against any such proposal. I don’t feel American in the way I feel European.
The trouble is that my feeling of cultural affinity isn’t something that I can use to persuade somebody who feels otherwise. So instead all the debate is about the real world consequences. And so can I be sure that what I think about these isn’t simply a rationalisation of my real reasons for wanting to get back into the EU as soon as decently possible?
There are surprisingly few facts that can tell me the answer. The fall in the value of the pound relative to the dollar and other world currencies is the biggest one. This is pretty much a vote that Britain will be worse off from the financial community around the globe. But that doesn’t mean that they are right. The rise in the value of the stock market and the general good health of Briitsh companies suggests that the threat from Brexit actually isn’t that great. I am struggling to think of another indicator that might give us an impartial steer on just how bad, or possible how good. Brexit is going to be. So basically I don't really know if I am right or wrong.
The biggest thing that determines economic well being is productivity. We are still struggling on this one, and leaving the EU won’t make it any easier. But maybe that is the real problem. All the time we are arguing about Europe we aren’t paying attention to the real issue.
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