Tuesday 6 December 2016

The Last Thing We Need Right Now Is A Court Case


There's a lot of talk about the court case that is on at the moment.  I was a bit surprised to discover that the government doesn't appear to have the power to take us out of the EU without an act of parliament.  I'd have thought it fell under foreign policy.  But the noises coming out of the court sound like that isn't going to be what the Supreme Court will find.  So that's an educational experience.  It just goes to show that not everything is as it at first appears.  So for example when I see a person or a newspaper attacking the independence of the courts, my first thought is that they are a fascist.  But perhaps they are just not very good at knowing where their own best interests lie.


The trouble with this case, which whatever its merits can't overturn the progress towards Brexit and probably not even affect the timetable, is that it is a huge distraction from the real issues.  Those are now coming into view in concrete form.  For example only today the EU's chief negotiator has pointed out that although there is a two year timescale on negotiations the actual agreement will need to be reached with 6 months to spare for the implementation.  It's obvious when you think about it.

So that means the meat of the negotiation will only have 18 months.  The EU has already prevented any preliminary negotiations prior to Article 50 being moved.  The EU is holding the best cards and has the most resources. And it has the most people who know how these things work.   This means that the UK is going to be at a distinct disadvantage in the talks. Our guys will be outmanned in numbers - that was inevitable - and will also have less relevant experience.

All in all we would probably have done better to have got started straight away where at least the element of surprise would have been of some use to the UK.  

On top of that we now have it explicitly stated that the EU wants to make sure that whatever deal is struck it should be less advantageous than remaining in the EU.  All in all, the last thing we need right now is a court case.

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