Saturday 10 December 2016

Leavers and Remainers Debate What To Do Next

I've seen the above popping up in a couple of places on Twitter and Facebook.  There is a similar one which is written to make the remainer look truculent and petulant.  I don't know which one came first but this one seems to have been spread around more so I am guessing it is the first one.

In fact if my experience is anything to go by this would be rather more polite than the average discussion that is going on.  I haven't seen much in the way of people coming together to constructively debate the best way forward.  It seems that leavers still want to leave and remainers still want to remain.  Both sides want to blame the other.

What I have noticed though is that people haven't really thought through their tactics very clearly yet.  Remainers haven't yet realised that the best way to get back in, and possibly to wreck the whole project and to end up actually staying is to push for the hardest fastest Brexit possible.  It is going to be much harder to argue to stop the whole thing if the negotiations stretch over years and years and end up with workable compromises.  By the time that lot has finished it will be the news story nobody is interested in and it will be very difficult to get any enthusiasm for starting a new set to get us back in again.


Conversely the devoted Brexiter ought to be really circumspect and cautious.  After all they only just won the referendum vote.  One big bad news story could be enough to swing the public around.  Basically their best option is to calm things down as quickly as possible.  Most people will accept the referendum result in the short run.  They might change their minds if something goes obviously wrong.  But so long as nothing happens that is obviously bad then they'll probably not worry about it too much.  So a long protracted leave process keeps the story off the front pages.  People will stop worrying about it and it will slip off of most people's agenda.  People who want to get it back in will have to cope with inertia as well as winning the argument for rejoining.  The more boring the subject becomes the harder that will be.

So basically if you want to leave the last thing you should wish for is a hard Brexit and the rapid leaving process.  Abusing remainers and keeping the issue live is a pretty bad strategy too.

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