Monday 15 October 2018

Think Where We Could Be Now



I know the political views of around 50 people.  I don't talk about politics all the time though, so I don't know how their views change and develop in any great detail.  Also these people are ones I just happen to know and they aren't a representative sample.  But nonetheless as a rough estimate I could make a guess that if 1 person I know changes their mind that is equivalent to 2% of the population.  Not very scientific, but better than reading the newspapers.


So I now know one person who has changed their mind on Brexit.  A 2% swing is all that is needed to reverse the outcome so I now have independent confirmation that a rerun would likely change the result.  Unfortunately in spite of everything I still can't see a rerun happening.  So instead I'll speculate on what would have happened had the vote gone the other way.

First of all, David Cameron would have been lord of all he surveyed. There would have been nothing much Jeremy Corbyn could have done about this, but at least he made sure he only went through the motions during the campaign.  That would probably have been enough to protect him from the charge of enabling the Tory government.  But while the government's tail would be up it would still have the problem of a thin majority and a handful of europhobe trouble makers.   So I guess that Cameron would have taken the opportunity of the boundary review to purge his back benchers of the skeptics.  And then onto an early election - probably a snap one to discomfort the Labour Party.  Probably in spring of 2018. 

I guess the Labour Party would have done better than expected, but Cameron was a much better campaigner than May.  Also the new seats would have been better suited to the Tories.  He would have got his majority.  And without the toxic Brexit brigade, and with the subject of Europe off the agenda, the Tories would be on course for another decade or more in power. 

I think I would have hated it.  But it would have been better than what we have now.

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