Brexit Proving More Rubbish And More Popular Than I Thought

Nothing helps fishermen quite as much as withdrawing from non current agreements

A Survation poll out today suggests that finally opinion is moving against Brexit.  The pollsters estimate that a referendum held today would have a 9 point lead to remain.  This is a big leap from recent poll figures and might well be an outlier.  But opinion does seem to be rather volatile at the moment so maybe it is true - but if things can swing that quickly then they can presumably swing back again just as easily.  So I don't think we are in 'the people who walketh in darkness have seen a great light' territory yet.  It is safest to assume for now that opinion is still pretty much where it was when the vote was held.  After all the polls had been pretty up and down just before the referendum as well.


I am quite surprised that opinion has not started to drift away from leave a bit more decisively.   The shortcomings of the leave campaign’s rhetoric came apart pretty quickly.  I don’t think they ever thought that they would win and felt they could say anything.

The other surprise is just how rubbish the UK’s approach to the Brexit negotiations has been.  The speed with which the Conservative Party swung around behind Brexit just after the result came out was impressive. The Brexit means Brexit phase revealed Theresa May in forceful and purposeful aspect.  With support from the press and with a majority behind them, they seemed unstoppable.   Remainers like myself could do no more than look on.  It all seemed like a fait accompli.

Back then the idea that there was any way out of it all was inconceivable.  In fact it looked like the Europe issue was going to turn into a huge vote winner for the conservatives.

But what a difference with today.  The big headline this morning was that Theresa May has pre-announced her intention to walk out of the talks.  This stunt is purely for domestic consumption and is not supposed to be taken seriously by any other participants.  The cynicism of this kind of thing is only overshadowed by the stupidity in letting the plan get out into the public domain.

Meanwhile Michael Gove has mystified everyone by announcing that the UK is pulling out of a fishing deal that is no longer in force.

Tactical errors like this are always embarrassing, but can be shrugged off if they are part of a successful overall strategy.  If such an overall strategy is going to emerge, it won’t be a minute too soon.  As it is we are looking like chumps.