Wednesday, 12 October 2016

Racism And Brexit - Why Racists Should Oppose Brexit


I follow a number of pro-Brexit forums.  It is always interesting to read a range of opinions especially those you aren't in sympathy with.  And who knows, there might be some killer reason for supporting Brexit that I haven't thought of.

As with all things that are open to anyone to contribute to, you never know what will pop up.  For example someone this morning simply posted a declaration that they were racist.  They didn't say anything offensive, they just stated it in plain language.  Accusing other people of racism is controversial, but it is important not to let people sneak racism into public dialogue in disguise. On the other hand, if someone wants to claim to be one I can't see why they should be silenced.

Nonetheless the moderators quickly removed it.  This could have been justified on the basis that it was off topic.  But I imagine that quite apart from that they didn't really want anyone mixing up racism and leaving the EU.  Leavers in general, and UKIP in particular, have been bedevilled by accusations of racism.  This is something they have always denied whenever they got a chance.  I don't think it is true, but accusations have a habit of sticking no matter how unjustified.  You can see why they reached for the delete button.

Tuesday, 11 October 2016

Falling Pound - The Grind Begins


It's not something that everybody notices every day, but it is something that has a big impact nonetheless.  I am already noticing the prices are moving up for some of the things I buy from abroad.  But I have feeling I am really going to feel it when I next travel abroad.  But the indirect effects are the big ones.  We are now considerably poorer than we used to be as a nation.  On paper we are already behind France and not much ahead of California.  This is all very real.  

Thursday, 6 October 2016

Majority In Work Voted Remain. Working Classes Versus Smirking Classes?


"A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension."

Wednesday, 5 October 2016

Will Brexit Affect The Pound In Your Pocket?

In 1967 Harold Wilson devalued the pound by 14%.  This was a big shock to the system, and he felt obliged to make a special television appearance to explain what was happening. He tried to minimise the  importance of the event by explaining that this didn't affect the pound in your pocket. The phrase was a memorable one and would haunt him for the rest of his career.  The plain fact was that it did indeed affect the pound in your pocket. It was now worth 14% less.



Economics is not an exact science.  It isn't really a science at all.  Just what happens when a currency falls in value isn't easy to predict. Very roughly it is a bit like a sale in a shop.  You knock down your prices which attracts some previously reluctant customers.  But you also cut your margins to all your customers - so you become less profitable.  Whether the extra custom is worth the reduced value of the sales you make is hard to tell.  Retailers who try to discount their way out of a tricky situation may or may not succeed.  It might be part of a long term strategy of course.  This might do better but even here there are no guarantees.

Friday, 30 September 2016

Creative Solutions To Brexit Problems


I don't think that Brexit is fundamentally about economics, but that doesn't mean it won't throw up economic problems that will need solutions.  For example there is the Nissan car plant in Brexit voting Sunderland.  85% of its output goes to the rest of the EU.  Now that we are leaving the EU there is a possibility that those exports will soon be subject to a tariff - which obviously very directly affects Nissan's margins.  What to do?

Thursday, 29 September 2016

Do Trade Agreements Matter That Much Anyway?


I don't think ultimately that economics was really important to the Brexit debate.  That seems like a strange thing to say given that so much of the argument centred around how disastrous the effects of withdrawal would be from one side, and the huge benefits of getting out of the sinking European market and freely trading on the high seas.  But if it was just about economics we'd be leaving Europe and joining China.  If the European single market is worth being in then think how juicy the Chinese one is.  And now we have voted out nobody is asking if the EU might come up with a big enough lump sum to pay us to stay.  At the end of the day the real question is about the UK's place in the world.  If you don't want Europe to influence Britain and are correspondingly uninterested in having any influence in it then getting out makes sense regardless of the costs or the benefits.

So it was never really about the money.

Monday, 26 September 2016

Brexit May Be An Issue For Years To Come

Youngsters Love EU More Than Corbyn


I don't want to spend too much time on this blog on politics, or at least not party politics.  Brexit is bigger than that and I need to get keep my own partisan views at a distance for what I am trying to do. But it is the conference season so here's another set of political reflections.

I Don't Think Things Are So Bad

Weirdly I feel very optimistic.  I was expecting the Tories to win big.  Well they won a lot bigger than I expected.  Their losses in th...