Creative Solutions To Brexit Problems

I don't think that Brexit is fundamentally about economics, but that doesn't mean it won't throw up economic problems that will need solutions.  For example there is the Nissan car plant in Brexit voting Sunderland.  85% of its output goes to the rest of the EU.  Now that we are leaving the EU there is a possibility that those exports will soon be subject to a tariff - which obviously very directly affects Nissan's margins.  What to do?

Do Trade Agreements Matter That Much Anyway?

I don't think ultimately that economics was really important to the Brexit debate.  That seems like a strange thing to say given that so much of the argument centred around how disastrous the effects of withdrawal would be from one side, and the huge benefits of getting out of the sinking European market and freely trading on the high seas.  But if it was just about economics we'd be leaving Europe and joining China.  If the European single market is worth being in then think how juicy the Chinese one is.  And now we have voted out nobody is asking if the EU might come up with a big enough lump sum to pay us to stay.  At the end of the day the real question is about the UK's place in the world.  If you don't want Europe to influence Britain and are correspondingly uninterested in having any influence in it then getting out makes sense regardless of the costs or the benefits.

So it was never really about the money.

Brexit May Be An Issue For Years To Come

Youngsters Love EU More Than Corbyn

I don't want to spend too much time on this blog on politics, or at least not party politics.  Brexit is bigger than that and I need to get keep my own partisan views at a distance for what I am trying to do. But it is the conference season so here's another set of political reflections.

Can UKIP Replace Labour?

I am writing this during the Labour Party conference, and there is not much specific Brexit news around so I am mulling over one possible unexpected side effect of the referendum result.  Could Labour be replaced as the primary opposition by UKIP?  It is something Nigel Farage has mused about.  It doesn't seem all that impossible at first sight.  About a third of Labour voters supported Brexit, and those third seem to be heavily represented in parts of the country like South Wales and Yorkshire which return a lot of Labour MPs.  So if UKIP could turn those leave voters into UKIP voters they could possibly start to build a base in parliament similar to that of the Labour Party.

Was Alfred the Great behind Brexit?

I have just read an article in the American journal the National Review by Rupert Darwell.  It is interesting to read a foreign take on your own country, and it is intriguing in particular when it is about your country's relationship with the rest of the world.  The thesis is that there is something unique about English history.  Americans often use England and Britain interchangeably. But this is not the case here.  The author is well aware of the difference.  His suggestion is that English history is distinctly different to that of the rest of Europe for reasons going back to the ninth century.

Personal Observations

Nothing much happening on the big political scene Brexit wise at the moment.  There are a lot of UK level politics going on so the issue isn't at the top of the agenda right now.  So I'll review how it is going on in my own little bubble.  The people I happen to interact with are no more representative than any other randomly selected group of people.  But I know them so I have a better idea of what they mean when they talk about a subject, so in some ways are more useful than a more scientific poll.

The Lib Dems and Brexit

The Lib Dem conference is getting very little coverage in the press, and what it is getting is pretty negative.  But everything is relative. Compared to being totally ignored as they have been most of the year this probably feels pretty good to the sandal wearers themselves.  They are the most fervent pro-European party in the mainstream and Tim Farron devoted a large chunk of his leader's speech to saying that Britain should be back in Europe.  He finished with -

just when liberals in other parties are desperate for a home where they can make a difference, the Liberal Democrats are back and we matter more than ever.
Keep Britain in Europe. Save Britain from the Tories. What an opportunity, what a mission.
We are ready.

Can We Go Global Now?

One of the good arguments that Nigel Farage used to put forward before the Brexit campaign was that by leaving the EU we could trade on the world stage unencumbered by the EU strait jacket.  It was a good line for him to take because it enabled him to portray himself as the outward looking internationalist fighting against parochial local interests.  I didn't hear it being deployed much during the campaign itself.  The Farage approach was to bring the debate onto immigration - which doesn't really mix well with enhancing internationalism.

Visegrad Group Reveals The Difficulties Of Brexit

A smallish Brexit news story briefly trended on Twitter last night and hasn't survived the Darwinian process of selection to make it into the mainstream news coverage.  The Visegrad Group of countries announced their intention to block any Brexit deal that didn't give their citizens the right to live and work in Britain.  

Diane James Takes Over UKIP - But What Will She Do With It?

The election of Diane James today was accompanied by a titbit of data.  She gained the support of 8,400 UKIP members.  The other candidates shared around 6,500 between them.  So the party that came third in the popular vote at the 2015 election has around 15,000 activists engaged enough to cast a vote in the leadership election.  Of those 15,000 many will play no role in politics apart from paying their subscription.  It's probably a generous estimation if we say that only half of those people will do very much at all.  That leaves about a dozen active members per constituency.

Why Everyone Is So Angry About Brexit

We are not so different to chimps

Okay, not everyone is angry about Brexit, but a lot of people are.  I was with a group of people a few days ago who were all of the same mind on the issue.  The language and venom they were using to describe the other side was both eye opening and blood curdling.  I have never heard such venomous language about a disagreement.  It was certainly worse than anything I have heard about politics or religion - it was even worse than the contempt some people express for users of Macs or PCs.

5 Lessons for Lefties from Daniel Hannan

It's easy being on the outside criticising.  I can't imagine a more care free life than that of Nigel Farage endlessly touring the country and the broadcast studios finding fault with the bigwigs.  Now he's come out on top of course, he has a completely different scenario to cope with.  He is now held responsible for what is happening.  His cheeky chappy persona is no longer an asset.  As he shows no sign of retiring he has to develop a new approach.  So far he shows no sign of doing that either.   Given the damage he has done I am afraid I will withhold my limited supply of sympathy if he fails to succeed in his new role.

Brexit - What Have We Got To Lose? Quite a lot.

Leaving the EU will change the way Britain relates to the rest of the continent, and inevitably there will be winners and losers.  There will probably be enough of each for anyone who fancies a spot of cherry picking to prove that leaving was a disaster or a blessing if they put their mind to it.  But what about the might of beens?  The things that would have happened if we had stayed but didn't because we left.  This is something we'll never know about, but an interview with Taavet Hinrikus in the Guardian gives some clues.

Flags At The Proms

I am fan of classical music and follow the Proms season every year.  When I lived near London I used to go to up to a dozen events each season.  I still try to get up there a few times, though sadly life got in the way this year.  I've never done the Last Night, but I always watch it on the telly.  I am not a flag waving in your face patriot, but I am patriotic enough to enjoy the atmosphere.  I even have the Sea Songs on one of my regular playlists - though the Pomp and Circumstance and Rule Britannia bits  are strictly for the night only in my book.  But it is all good fun and it is good to have a real live tradition.  It is something that brings us together.

Express Opinons - The Media Environment

Anti-EU Bias not remotely subtle

I haven't got much actual news right now, but here's a retrospective on the long term media trashing of the EU.  What effect has all this negativity had?  I think it has affected me for sure.  In my job I deal with legislation from around the world in my field.  I have always just assumed, for no other reason than that this was a thought that was easily picked up, that the EU's was especially bad.

Australia's Priority is the EU rather than the UK

If I am really interested in an argument I will always try and put a case for the other side, at least in my head.  It is best to do it on paper though, because it is instructive to compare the lists of arguments on both sides to see where each case seems strongest.  The best case I could come up with for Brexit was that it would make trade with the rest of the world easier.

Gordon Brown - The Man Who Saved Brexit

It was always possible that the Brexit project would not last a week.  On news of the result the value of the pound started to fall.  Markets being markets, there is every possibility that the fall would have continued.  Panic can feed panic.  The UK has reserves of course, but they are not infinite.  A sharp enough drop could have wiped them out leaving the currency too weak to pay for vital imports let alone loans on foreign debt.  Everything would have to be tried to restore confidence and any promise that was needed to calm the markets would have to be made.  The national government run by Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn would have had to issue a statement confirming that plans to leave the EU had been put on hold indefinitely.

What Happens If Brexit Goes Badly Wrong?

I don't think that there will be a big single event that derails Brexit and discredits it.  The one thing that might fit the bill would be a massive run on the pound.  We've had a bit of one over the last couple of months, but because it was a sudden drop that stabilised quickly it didn't really have the psychological effect of a sustained fall in value that nobody knows the end of.  The UK economy is too big for all but the biggest of shocks to knock it off course in the short run.  You should never say never about things like this, but I think the risk is pretty low.  The most likely scenario is a steady accumulation of small bad news stories which eventually build into a narrative that Brexit means job losses.

March For Europe - Is This The Beginning Of Something?

I only heard about the March for Europe when I saw it trending on Twitter.  I don't follow the news much so I don't know if it had much pre-publicity.  Interestingly it probably wouldn't have trended had there not been so many people tweeting to criticise it.

A Simple Test To See How Much You Care About Immigration

The Great Wall of Calais probably won't be this big

The news this morning is that £2M is to be spent building a wall around the terminal at Calais to keep migrants out.  I am not sure how much wall you get for that.  Presumably it will stop some of the gaps by which migrants get into the UK.  But it won't stop them all, so we can be pretty sure that people will still be arriving in the UKwho nobody has invited in.

Let's Sign A Petition - Just How Brexity are the Brexiteers?

Where the keenest Brexiters Live

Just how strong is the level of support for leaving the EU?  We know that it is an opinion expressed by about half of voters in the referendum, and the subsequent polls indicate it hasn't changed much in the first few weeks since the vote.  But it was a binary choice - you had to come down on one side or the other.  Are outers or remainers more committed to their opinion?

Japanese Government Tells Brexit It Like It Is

Japan - Land of Rising Sun and Plain Speaking About Brexit

The most misleading arguments are those that are true most of the time but don't cover the full picture.  Gravity is a pretty good theory and generally a good guide to action.  But it doesn't cover balloons and aeroplanes.  One of the arguments that Brexit won't be that big a deal is that we'll still want to trade with Europe, and Europe will still want to trade with use.   Trade benefits both parties - so where's the problem?  We don't need to be in the EU to trade.

Blame Blair For Brexit

This analysis appeared on YouTube shortly after the referendum result, and has subsequently been largely ignored.   Although it was being broadcast a few days after the referendum it was based on a lot of study beforehand.  So it isn't a political commentator trying to make a story to fill a column.   It is a conclusion that the guy had already reached before the votes were counted.

The Land Border with the EU

For a country that tends to think of itself as an island, we've had quite a lot of trouble with borders over the years.  The worst was just over a hundred years ago when a civil war nearly broke out over what seems to modern eyes to be a very modest proposal to give Ireland home rule.  The problem was avoided, but only as a result of a bigger problem in the form of World War One.  Ireland was always going to end up independent, but the location of the border with the rest of the UK was the result of the particular circumstances just after the war.  They don't suit everyone even today and the issue is still a bit too raw for it to be sensible to open it up again right now.

Brexit As It Happens

I suppose I should start by making my own opinion clear.  I think Brexit is a really stupid idea.  My reasoning is simple.  Why downgrade my citizenship?  An EU passport is going to be a lot more useful to me than a simple UK one.